Wildfire Risk
Wildfire risk reflects burn probability, vegetation pressure, and how exposed the built environment is to nearby fire activity.
~46M
WUI homes in US
$130,000+
Avg wildfire claim
10+
States with carrier withdrawals
About wildfire risk
Wildfire risk in the United States has shifted dramatically in the past two decades. The wildland-urban interface (WUI) — where developed land meets undeveloped vegetation — now contains an estimated 46 million homes, and the number grows every year as exurban development pushes into historically fire-prone terrain. The 2018 Camp Fire in California and the 2023 Lahaina Fire in Hawaii made the term 'wildfire insurance crisis' a household phrase.
Two federal datasets are the primary risk signals. The USDA Forest Service's Wildfire Hazard Potential (WHP) map captures burn probability and vegetation pressure. The CAL FIRE Fire Hazard Severity Zone map (California only) is the regulatory layer used by carriers and municipalities. For properties in Very High WHP zones, the insurance market is increasingly bifurcated: a small group of carriers is willing to write new policies, often at a significant premium, while major carriers have non-renewed or refused to quote.
Wildfire risk is also the hazard where the gap between federal data and local knowledge is widest. A property's WHP score does not capture defensible space, roof material, or vent screening — all of which materially change the probability of structure loss. Buyers in wildfire-exposed regions should pair federal data with a fire-hardening inspection before going under contract.
What signals a wildfire-exposed parcel
The USDA WHP layer is the most comprehensive nationwide signal of burn probability. In California, CAL FIRE's Fire Hazard Severity Zone map is the regulatory authority: 'Very High' FHSZ zones trigger defensible-space requirements and impact insurance availability. Parcel-level signals include vegetation density within 100 feet, slope (steeper = faster fire spread), and roof material (Class A asphalt shingle, tile, or metal outperform wood shake).
Risk Bands Explained
Very High WHP
Near wildland interface — insurance may be unavailable or very costly
High WHP
Elevated exposure — defensible space and hardening strongly recommended
Moderate WHP
Below-average national exposure — standard coverage typically available
Buyer Action Checklist
- 01
Check whether the property is in a CAL FIRE designated High or Very High Fire Hazard Severity Zone
- 02
Verify insurer appetite in the ZIP code — many carriers have withdrawn from high-risk areas
- 03
Inspect roof material, vents, and deck construction for fire hardening
- 04
Evaluate defensible space — 30-foot ember-resistant zone is standard guidance
Data source: USDA · USDA Wildfire Risk to Communities
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Wildfire Risk FAQ
What is the difference between USDA WHP and CAL FIRE FHSZ?
The USDA Wildfire Hazard Potential (WHP) is a nationwide dataset that models burn probability and vegetation pressure. The CAL FIRE Fire Hazard Severity Zone (FHSZ) is California's regulatory layer and the authoritative signal for insurance and defensible-space requirements. In California, FHSZ is what carriers and local governments act on; WHP is the broader nationwide context.
Can I get homeowners insurance in a Very High wildfire zone?
It depends on the carrier, the property's hardening status, and the state. In California, the FAIR Plan is the insurer of last resort for properties that cannot find admitted-market coverage. In other high-WHP western states, surplus lines carriers may quote. Always verify carrier appetite in the ZIP before going under contract.
How is wildfire risk expected to change?
Both the USDA Forest Service and the IPCC expect wildfire frequency and severity to increase in the western US and parts of the Southeast over the next 30 years. The Risk Before Buy full report includes a 30-year projection for the parcel's county-level WHP percentile.