Flagstaff, AZ

The 2022 Tunnel Fire forced evacuations north and east of Flagstaff and burned more than 19,000 acres—a direct demonstration that mountain-city markets in ponderosa pine forests carry destructive wildfire exposure that altitude and moderate temperatures do not offset. Flagstaff's wildfire score of 85 sits at the 93rd national percentile; flood sits at the 67th. Those two numbers are connected: burn-scar flooding after the 2022 fire season increased runoff and flash-flood risk in downstream neighborhoods, creating a compound exposure specific to post-wildfire forest-edge markets. What we noticed: Central Flagstaff's 86001 forest adjacency keeps wildfire front of mind in an underwriting environment where defensible space and access routes influence carrier appetite directly. East Flagstaff's 86004 includes post-fire flood pathways that were not significant before the 2022 burn season. This is a market where wildfire produces not just direct damage risk but secondary flood risk in the following rain seasons—a two-event exposure that standard flood maps do not yet fully capture. Annual premiums range from $1,500 to $3,600, with moderately constrained availability in forest-edge areas. Defensible space compliance and roof material are practical pricing variables: properties with compliant defensible space and Class A roofing underwrite more favorably and attract broader carrier participation. Burn-scar flooding matters after wildfire seasons and deserves a separate review from baseline flood zone status. Heat at the 28th national percentile—minimal band—is the clearest signal that Flagstaff is not a heat story. The false comfort in this market is not about temperature. It is the assumption that cooler conditions neutralize wildfire risk in a ponderosa forest. Tunnel Fire proved otherwise.

— Open Data Collective