City Risk Report
Grand Junction, CO
Mesa County · Pop. 60,358
County-level composite · does not reflect parcel-specific conditions
Grand Junction buyers should focus on wildfire exposure, defensible space, and carrier appetite before closing.
Editorial review: 2026-06-19 · Data retrieved: Jun 19, 2026 at 00:00 UTC (snapshot of historical values) · For the latest live data, run a lookup on the Snapshot tool.
Overall Risk Score
Above the national median (top 25% most at-risk)
County-level composite · does not reflect parcel-specific conditions
Overall Risk
Above the national median (top 25% most at-risk)
County-level composite · does not reflect parcel-specific conditions
Expected Annual Loss
Top 19% most at-risk nationally
Extreme · county composite
Est. Annual Insurance
$1,900 – $4,310
Directional range
Last Major Event
2022
Wildfire season
Insurance Market Context
These scores are county-level composites derived from FEMA National Risk Index. Individual parcels may differ significantly. This is not a property appraisal.
Market Pressure
HIGH
Colorado's admitted-carrier market is contracting. A broker with state-specific experience is strongly recommended.
Admitted Market Share
66%
Carriers exiting at 6.1% YoY in Colorado.
Residual Market
$2,660–$6,034
annual · last-resort
FAIR Plan / Citizens exposure up 95% since 2020.
Premium Strain Index
Insurance is roughly 4.1% of median household income — well above the 2% middle-income affordability benchmark (First Street flags anything above 5% as financially unsustainable).
Premium-to-income ratio. Based on state Department of Insurance filings, average annual premiums in this area range from $1,900 to $4,310. Not an insurance quote. The First Street 12th National Risk Assessment characterizes any ZIP above 5% as financially unsustainable.
Mesa County Hazard Breakdown
Scores below are from the federal National Risk Index at the county level, refined with parcel-level signals where available (FEMA NFHL for flood, USDA WHP for wildfire, USGS PGA for earthquake, NWS for heat).
Data pending
Hurricane
Low riskTop 15% most at-risk nationally
Earthquake
ExtremeAround the national median
Extreme Heat
ModerateTop 18% most at-risk nationally
Flood
ExtremeTop 10% most at-risk nationally
Wildfire
ExtremeData pending
Severe Storm / Tornado
Low riskWhat each hazard means for you
Expand any card to see the federal source citation and the buyer-specific action items our research team recommends for this hazard profile.
Hurricane Risk
Grand Junction ranks in the 0th national percentile for hurricane exposure in the FEMA National Risk Index.
FEMA · National Risk Index
Earthquake Risk
Grand Junction ranks in the 85th national percentile for earthquake exposure in the FEMA National Risk Index.
FEMA · National Risk Index
Extreme Heat
Grand Junction ranks in the 59th national percentile for heat exposure in the FEMA National Risk Index.
FEMA · National Risk Index
Flood Risk
Grand Junction ranks in the 82th national percentile for flood exposure in the FEMA National Risk Index.
FEMA · National Risk Index
Wildfire Risk
Grand Junction ranks in the 90th national percentile for wildfire exposure in the FEMA National Risk Index.
FEMA · National Risk Index
Severe Storm / Tornado
Grand Junction tornado data is unavailable. Run an address lookup for parcel-specific assessment.
FEMA · National Risk Index
FEMA Flood Zone
Is this specific parcel in a Special Flood Hazard Area?
The free address snapshot queries FEMA NFHL point-in-polygon and returns your exact FEMA Flood Zone (A, AE, X, etc.) in seconds.
Run a free address lookupCarrier Outlook
Colorado's admitted-carrier market is contracting. A broker with state-specific experience is strongly recommended.
Data Sources
Data Sources & Methodology
FEMA— National Risk Index
Retrieved June 19, 2026
Editorial Analysis
Grand Junction, Mesa County has an overall National Risk Index score of 75 and an expected annual loss score of 81, placing it in the extreme national risk band. The dominant local perils are wildfire, earthquake, flood. The city-level scores below are county-level composites; actual parcel risk can differ meaningfully by neighborhood, elevation, and lot characteristics. Grand Junction's wildfire risk scores 90 at the 90th national percentile, placing it in the extreme band. This is among the highest exposure nationally; standard-market underwriting is increasingly selective and residual-market backup plans are worth modeling. Buyers should assess defensible space, roof and vent class, and proximity to brush. Grand Junction's earthquake risk scores 85 at the 85th national percentile, placing it in the extreme band. This is among the highest exposure nationally; standard-market underwriting is increasingly selective and residual-market backup plans are worth modeling. Buyers should verify seismic retrofit status and whether earthquake coverage is included. Grand Junction's flood risk scores 82 at the 82nd national percentile, placing it in the extreme band. This is among the highest exposure nationally; standard-market underwriting is increasingly selective and residual-market backup plans are worth modeling. Buyers should check FEMA flood zone status, elevation certificate, and drainage history. The Colorado insurance market is currently under high pressure: admitted carriers write roughly 66% of new business and the residual market has grown roughly 95% since 2020. For higher-risk parcels in Grand Junction, the residual market can run from $2,400 to $5,200 annually. Directional standard-market premiums for the city typically range from $1,900 to $4,310, but parcel-specific factors can move quotes well outside that band. Buyers should use the address-level snapshot tool to pin these citywide averages to the specific property under consideration. A full L2 or L3 report will also surface flood zone status, insurance-market pressure, and action items tied to the exact parcel.
— Open Data Collective
Historical Events
Wildfire season
Regional wildfire activity affected air quality and raised insurance scrutiny near Grand Junction.
Regional flooding
Heavy rainfall and drainage stress produced localized flooding across the Grand Junction area.
ZIP Code Risk Profile
Representative ZIP Codes
Risk varies significantly by ZIP code and parcel. Use the address-level report for precise, parcel-specific scores rather than city-wide averages.
NRI Score Components
County-level composite · does not reflect parcel-specific conditions
Grand Junction Climate Risk FAQ
Ready to check your specific address?
Considering buying in Grand Junction?
Two tiers, one funnel: run a free address lookup, then unlock the depth that fits your buying stage. Both options deliver a 12+ page climate brief before you go under contract.
Full Report
Tier L2
Address-level climate risk deep dive covering five hazards, 30-year projections, and an insurance cost estimate. Delivered as a PDF within 24 hours.
- Five-hazard score breakdown: flood, wildfire, hurricane, earthquake, heat
- 30-year federal climate projections for heat, wildfire, and sea level rise
- Insurance premium estimate range based on state DOI filings
- Clear buy / negotiate / walk-away recommendation with plain-language reasoning
- Comparable lower-risk communities within 25 miles (up to 3 when available)
- Plain-English explanations of SFHA, BFE, residual market, and other insurance terms
- Single PDF you can share with your partner, agent, or inspector
Best for: pre-offer sanity check
Delivered: PDF by email within 24 hours
Federal data: FEMA, USGS, NOAA, USDA, EPA
Delivered by email within 24 hours of payment.
Pre-Purchase Audit
Tier L3
Full due-diligence report for under-contract buyers. Adds parcel-level flood zone verification, state insurance market analysis, claim history, and a negotiation brief with specific seller-concession asks. Delivered as a PDF by email within 24 hours.
- Everything in the $19 Full Report
- Parcel-level FEMA flood zone verification (Zone A/AE/VE/X — point-in-polygon)
- State insurance market analysis: admitted carrier share, exit rate, residual market growth
- Premium Strain Index — insurance cost as % of local median income, with 2% / 5% affordability benchmarks
- 10-year NOAA Storm Events claim history for the ZIP code
- Negotiation leverage brief with specific, evidence-backed seller-concession asks (typically 3–5; fewer when data is limited)
- Total carrying cost estimate: HO-3 baseline + standalone perils + residual market fallback
- Identifies whether the property may become hard to insure before you close
- Gives you specific talking points for price, credits, and contingency negotiation
Best for: under-contract buyers
Delivered: PDF by email within 24 hours
Includes: 7-day no-questions-asked refund
Delivered by email within 24 hours of payment.